Getting There First: A Guide to Identifying Emerging Sports for Analysis

Jack Davis

2025-11-06

Sources

Case study 1: Twenty20 cricket.

Let’s look at two case studies:

Case study 1: Twenty20 cricket.

https://www.icc-cricket.com

Case study 1: Twenty20 cricket.

Twenty20 cricket, named so because there are only 20 six-ball overs thrown per side, was just emerging as a professionally played format of cricket in 2005-2010. It can be played in 3 hours instead of 8 hours (one-day) or 5 days (test).

The analysis of this new format had not yet caught up to its populatity, so meaningful gains were available. (Specifically, people were playing it as if it was similar to the longer one-day format of 50 overs per side)

Case study 1: Twenty20 cricket.

Data recording had already been established on ESPN’s cricinfo website for cricket games in other formats going back decades. T20 games were recorded in the same structured natural language play-by-play format.

In short, there was available data, an audience, and an opportunity to make an impact on the field without a huge amount of expertise. Two later, we had a stack of published papers on Twenty20.

Case study 2: Horse racing

Case study 2: Horse racing

Case study 2: Horse racing

Horse racing is a long-established spectator sport that had changed very little in the last 50 years. Evne the introduction of Tapeta artificial turf hasn’t changed much because many venues keep the same ground they always have for either budgetary or traditional reasons.

Data is available through the Daily Racing Form, but it’s in a format that takes a lot of effort to parse. It’s also $100/month for full access.

Lots of analysis has been done by betting factions, but because of the stock-market-like nature of betting on horses, most of the analysis done is not publicly available. (As a contrast, Poker is has lots of books, coaching, and tools available for a fee. Another case where information has obvious monetary value.)

Case study 2: Horse racing

Horse racing is in a slow decline (cite economics paper), globally over the last few decades. Locally, with the exception of the special events like King’s Plate (Woodbine Raceway, Toronto), or the Battle of Waterloo (Grand River Raceway, Elora), seats at races are left empty and telcase viewership is down.

The result has been a research dead end. Multiple interesting angles have been explored, but there’s a lot of uncertainty about whether the work is novel, and whether its publication will be impactful (i.e., well-received and well-cited).

Case study 2: Horse racing

To quote “An Industry in Decline: Can U.S. Horse Racing Turn the Corner?” David Lynn Hoffman, Debora J. Gilliard, Sally Baalbaki-Yassine, all Metropolitan State University of Denver

Horse tracks once were at the height of their popularity when it was one of the few options for disposable income and use of leisure time. However, horse tracks have declined in popularity, have seen decreased revenue, an aging target market, and are less attractive to younger generations who are tethered to their cell phones. Given the increasing regulation, market trends, and decreasing revenues can the industry turn the corner to a better home stretch?

So what other sports are rising stars?

So what other sports are rising stars?

Recently we’ve seen pickleball rise in popularity first as a participant sport, and secondly as a professional spectator sport.

After a few false starts, women’s hockey, through the PWHL, is growing fast.

One factor these two have in common with other sports that grew quickly in popularity is accessible viewership. Both pickleball (pickletv.com) and the PWHL (CBC Gem) have free streaming options with announcers to support and explain the action.

Accessible viewership

Other factors of accessible viewership include:

TV viewership is still a big deal because sports take up the lion’s share of appointment television. (See the The Formula and The Club for details on TV contracts)

Other factors that indicate or drive sport popularity

Some other factors that indicate or drive sport popularity include…

Other factors that indicate or drive sport popularity

Kingmakers

For example, the WNBA has just signed a 10-year TV deal with NBC through Disney. (https://www.wnba.com/news/media-rights-deal-disney-prime-nbc), which effectively guarantees media coverage of games, commentary, and highlights until 2036.

Another Kingmaker is Qatar Sports Investments (QSI), which purchased a controlling stake in Paris Saint-Germain in 2011, as well as a controlling stake in Premier Padel in 2022 and World Padel Tour in 2023. ( https://www.qsi.com.qa/portfolio/ )

Kingmakers

Red Bull Sports has also had great success in its soccer team investments like RB Leipzig and the New York Red Bulls, as well as its Formula 1 team. Recently it has also partnered with Premier Padel ( https://www.redbull.com/int-en/events/fip-world-cup-pairs , https://www.redbullcontentpool.com/premierpadel ), as well as purchased the rugby team Newcastle Falcons ( https://www.gpblog.com/en/news/red-bull-expands-sports-portfolio-with-full-control-of-new-team )

Fenway Sports Group has expanded out from the Boston Red Sox to acquire and support mature sporting enterprizes like the Pittsburg Penguins, and the PGA Tour (Golf). ( https://fenwaysportsgroup.com/the-fsg-family/ )

Kingmakers

Other multi-team or multi-sport groups to pay attention to:

Padel

So wat’s this about Padel (pronounced Pa-delle).

Padel is a sport like tennis, but with a small hard paddle instead of a large racket with strings.

Padel

The court is smaller, and most importantly, surrounded in glass walls. To hit the ball over ot the other side, players may bounce the ball off the walls, including the wall behind the player. Also, serving is done underarm, which is slower and easier to return.

Padel

Several reasons why I think Padel is a good candidate to learn about now to publish about in 2-3 years.

Padel

On the other hand, a Padel court requires glass walls, which adds a barrier to court conversion from other sports. That doesn’t seem to be stopping facility adoption.

“In the United States, tennis and pickleball still deominate, but padel wants some of the action. Dozens of new facilities [are being built in the US]. (https://www.sportingnews.com/us/lifestyle/news/athletes-and-investors-fuel-rapid-rise-padel-worldwide%C2%A0/af661e43b8fc603b08d106d3 ) Athletes and investors fuel rapid rise of padel worldwide, by John Boitnott)

Padel

Padel has some emerging analytics groups, but they all seem to have something in common: a focus on getting the data from computer vision, with only light use of that data. For example, for measuring personal effort spent. These groups could really use more statistical muscle.

Padel

Examples include:

Padelyrtics, a six-person startup using computer vision to do padel analytics. Their current project is to develop a model for shot effectiveness. Their team has acouple of AI/ML specialists, but nobody from a stats or analytics background.

Padelize is similar, but uses your phone as the camera, instead of a dedicated camera. It’s in early access as an app.

Padel Stats (stats.padel.ac) gives rankings and such for the Qatar Airways Permier Padel league (based in Spain).

Sponsorship

Another way to get a sense of what is emerging in sports (and anything else commercial) is to copy the homework of the people that are paid to do this. In this case, we can look to experts in sponsorship opportunities.

Consider

“Padel: The sponsorship goldmine you might be overlooking” (Sean Connell, https://www.thesponsor.com/padel-the-sponsorship-goldmine-you-might-be-overlooking/ )

Which claims the following.

“Despite its commercial infancy, the sport has all the attributes brands look for in a sponsorship property.”

  1. Affluent and young demographic.
  2. Social and community driven, because the game is often played 2v2.
  3. Recent uncertainty regarding what the dominant league would be has been resolved.

Teqball

Plus: Strong local following in Thailand and some following Brazil.

Plus: Good for live, streamed, and short form.

Plus: Soccer skills transfer over, allowing lots of people to jump into an otherwise difficult sport.

Plus: Exciting and easy to follow action.

Minus: A specialized, curved table is needed.

Minus: Getting to a playable level requires a lot of soccer ball control that most laypeople would take a long time to develop.

Drone Racing

Plus: Great video content, very video-game like.

Plus: Drones are getting cheaper and more developed.

Plus: A wide variety of venues can be used to host a drone race, as opposed to a car, horse, or foot race which requires a dedicated track.

Plus: Lots of drone telemetry statistics can be made available for analysis.

Minus: For safety reasons, a large, empty venue is required.

Other mentions

Flag football kept coming up in my research, but I just don’t see it happening as a major thing. it’s too similar to gridiron football without the kick.

eSports also came up a lot, but that’s been established for a while.

I would love to tackle pool/billiards/snooker as well as darts, but unless there’s a push for third spaces, I don’t see it being worth it.

Notable ChatGPT prompts used:

You are an expert in the economics of sports and sporting events which are popular in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia. You also have some training in sports analytics, and know about available data sources for sports. Tell me some of the factors that are leading indicators of the success and popularity of sports. In particular, tell me what leagues and sports have risen in popularity over the last 3-5 years, and tell me what factors related to economics, spectatorship, and participation all or most of these leagues and sports have in common.
Can you tell me any emerging sports that are similar to padel in theri potential for sponsorship and analytics development?
What are some other kingmaker sports groups that purchase and support teams and leagues? I'm talking about groups besides disney, qatar sports investments, red bull sports, and fenway sports group?